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Monday, 7 March 2011


The leader of France's far-right National Front party, Marine Le Pen, would come out ahead of incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the first round of voting if a presidential election were held now instead of in the spring of 2012, according to the surprise result of a latest political-opinion poll published Sunday. The poll, published in the daily newspaper Le Parisien, gives Le Pen 23% of voting intentions, ahead of Sarkozy and Socialist Party leader Martine Aubry. The poll was carried out among a sample group of 1,618 people by the Louis Harris Interactive organization. In five previous polls between March and November last year, Le Pen scored voting intentions of between 11% and 13%.

Le Pen recently took over leadership of her party from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who, in the first round of the 2002 election, came in second to conservative Jacques Chirac, beating Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin, who subsequently retired from politics. French voters then closed ranks behind Chirac in the runoff round to keep Le Pen out. Sarkozy's popularity has sagged in recent months amid a series of ministerial scandals that culminated in a cabinet shake-up at the end of February. His political foes say he is paying the price for what they see as an uncompromising and fear-mongering stance on immigration and stirring up anti-Muslim sentiment. The recent civil unrest in North Africa since December is another factor that has worried public opinion in France, which has a large North African immigrant population.

Political commentators have cautioned that the margin of error for such on-line polls is large, of more than 2%. And they point out that the those polled weren't asked to give their opinion on Dominique Strauss-Kahn, currently head of the International Monetary Fund. Strauss-Kahn, a Socialist, hasn't declared his intention to run for the presidency in 2012, although he benefits from much more favorable popularity ratings than Martine Aubry. Le Pen is drawing her support from Sarkozy's camp according to the poll results. More than 20% of those who said they would vote for her in the first round said they had voted for Sarkozy in the 2007 presidential election. Sarkozy has yet to declare his candidacy to seek a second term in 2012. Jean-Francois Cope, Secretary-General of Sarkozy's UMP party, said it would be a mistake to read too much into the poll result so far ahead of the election, saying that the poll "is just one among many" and called on the party's members to "keep a cool head." He acknowledged that moderate conservatives will suffer attacks from both the left and the far right in the lead-up to the election in 14 months' time.

Wall Street Journal