Dutch voters seeking fiscal discipline and tighter immigration laws appear ready to back a new right-wing government in a national election Wednesday – and may even double their support for strident anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders.
An immigrant-wary, free-market party that hasn't led a government in nearly 100 years – the Peoples Party for Freedom and Democracy, known as the VVD – has taken a commanding lead in the polls. That positions Mark Rutte, its 43-year-old leader, to be a potential prime minister and form the country's next cabinet.
Rutte has not ruled out bringing Wilders into a governing coalition.
The country's fourth election since 2002 comes after the Labor Party brought down Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende's centrist government in March over its refusal to extend the Dutch military contribution to fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan.
But Afghanistan has barely been mentioned in the three-month campaign, as budget cuts rose swiftly up the agenda and immigration remained a key issue.
Wilders, the maverick politician who denounces Islam as a fascist religion, seized the spotlight early with a program that included a tax on headscarves worn by Muslim women.
At one time, his 4-year-old Freedom Party led the opinion polls, but fell back dramatically to fourth place after attention shifted to the European financial crisis and demands to cut the country's deficit, now predicted to run at 6.3 percent of GDP this year.
The focus on economic issues helped Rutte's party gain prominence. Although it has joined several center-right and center-left coalitions before, it has not led a government since before World War I.
Although less outspoken than Wilders, Rutte has warned that "welfare tourism" with open doors to migrants from Muslim countries and eastern Europe who would be a drain on the economy.
Polls suggest that Job Cohen, 62, the former mayor of Amsterdam who took over the Labor party leadership after the collapse of the government, is the most popular single candidate. But his party lags in second place well behind the VVD.
Cohen has warned Rutte that his plan to cut euro20 billion ($24 billion) in government spending over five years will hurt the poor.
"We're not going to budget-cut the economy to death," Cohen said. "We will make sure people keep their jobs. For that you need politicians that work together on solutions, a Netherlands where everybody counts."
Polls say Wilders may win at least twice the nine seats he currently holds in the 150-member parliament. But it was unclear whether Wilders, whose unfettered rhetoric has made him the target of death threats, would be an acceptable partner in a coalition.
Wilders faces a criminal trial later this year on charges of inciting hatred and discrimination with his 17-minute film "Fitna," which portrayed Islam as encouraging terrorism and rejecting Western values.
"Why is that I have to debate with a bulletproof vest on and not you?" Wilders asked Cohen at a televised debate Monday. "(Islam is) a totalitarian, violent, intolerant religion. Open your eyes."
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